Have you heard of this thing?

More formally, it is referred to as “The Gartner Hype Cycle”, a graphical representation and methodology developed by the research and advisory firm Gartner and first introduced by Jackie Fenn, a VP at Gartner in the 1995 research report titled “The Hype Cycle”.

The objective is to depict the lifecycle stages that emerging technologies typically go through as they evolve from initial conception to mainstream adoption.

The cycle attempts to provides insights into how technologies are perceived and how they progress in terms of visibility, expectations, and maturity. The Hype Cycle was ultimately developed as a response to the observations of Gartner, that many new technologies were subject to exaggerated expectations followed by disappointment when those technologies failed to deliver immediate revolutionary changes.

Gartner recognized the need for a more structured way to manage these expectations and provide more realistic guidance for the adoption of emerging technologies. In the 25+ years that have passed since its introduction, it has become well-known and widely used as a framework in the technology industry to analyse and discuss the trajectories of new technologies, their adoption patterns, and the challenges they face.

TL;DR The Cycle is an adaptation of a view on technology life cycles and ultimately tries to deal with perceived discontinuities in adoption.

“One of the more interesting features of Gartner’s Hype Cycle is that it takes into account the unbridled and almost euphoric optimism that accompanies the introduction of some technologies and, of course, the inevitable precipitous decline of the next-best thing.” ¹

Usage

The Hype Cycle has its critics, but has helped technology leaders, investors, and decision-makers make informed decisions about when and how to engage with emerging technologies based on a more balanced understanding of their potential benefits and risks.

Business leaders could use the Gartner Hype Cycle as a strategic tool to guide decisions about adopting and investing in specific emerging technologies in the absence of their own proofs.

For example, the Cycle provides an overview of various technologies and their maturity levels as part of Landscape Assessment such that it can be used to identify technologies that are relevant to specific industry and business objectives. This helps one stay informed about the latest trends and innovations.

The Hype Cycle can help leaders anticipate the potential impact of emerging technologies on their business in their Strategic Planning; for future technology adoption and integration by considering the expected trajectory of each technology along the cycle.

By understanding where a technology stands on the Hype Cycle, leaders can better assess the associated risks in Adoption Risk Assessments, thereby avoiding being caught up in the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and instead make decisions based on a balanced view of the technology’s potential benefits and challenges.

When leaders engage in Resource Allocation, they can do this more effectively by considering which technologies are approaching the “Slope of Enlightenment” and “Plateau of Productivity.” These phases indicate that the technology is becoming more practical and can yield tangible results, making it a better candidate for investment.

The Hype Cycle helps leaders create an innovation strategy that aligns with an organization’s goals guiding them in deciding whether to be early adopters or wait until a technology matures further before investing resources.

Being aware of where competitors are in terms of technology adoption can provide insights into potential competitive advantage if a business successfully navigates the Hype Cycle it can gain an edge by embracing transformative technologies at the right time.

When considering technology solutions or partnerships, business leaders can refer to the Hype Cycle to understand the vendor landscape. Businesses can make informed decisions about which vendors align with their technology adoption timeline and objectives.

The Hype Cycle can help leaders educate executive leadership teams, investors, and other stakeholders about the expected progression of technologies and promotes a more realistic understanding of the potential outcomes and timelines.

The Hype Cycle encourages leaders to think long-term trends and consider these relative to short-term implications of technology adoption. This perspective is crucial for creating sustainable strategies.

Extra considerations

By recognizing that technologies go through different phases, leaders can adjust their expectations accordingly. This minimizes disappointment when a technology doesn’t deliver immediate transformative results.

The Hype Cycle was specifically designed to track the adoption of technologies, as mentioned. It might not capture the nuances of non-technological innovations or concepts that don’t fit the typical technology lifecycle. Different types of innovations may follow different adoption trajectories; for example, consumer products might have their own adoption patterns that are influenced by factors like fashion trends and lifestyle choices.

Some innovations might be deeply rooted in cultural or societal changes that don’t fit the linear progression of the Hype Cycle. The cycle might not adequately account for cultural shifts and their impact on adoption. Innovations in fields with strong regulatory frameworks (such as healthcare or finance) might also be influenced by legal and compliance factors in ways that the Hype Cycle might not fully capture.

Innovations that cater to niche markets or localized needs might not exhibit the same wide-ranging adoption patterns that technology trends often do, and ideas that are incremental improvements or evolutionary changes to existing solutions might not experience the same hype-disillusionment cycle as radical and transformative innovations. The Hype Cycle involves subjective perceptions and market trends, which might not be as relevant for innovations driven by other factors, such as scientific discoveries.

Industry specific implications

The Hype Cycle has been used to analyse the adoption of new medical technologies, healthcare IT solutions, and digital health innovations and as such it helps healthcare organizations understand the stages of acceptance and integration for technologies like telemedicine, electronic health records, and medical wearables.

In educational technology (EdTech) it has helped educators and educational institutions assess the potential impact and adoption of new teaching tools, e-learning platforms, and educational software. The financial services sector has used the Hype Cycle to evaluate the adoption of financial technologies (fintech) such as blockchain, robo-advisors, and mobile payment solutions.

In automotive the Hype Cycle is often applied to emerging technologies like autonomous vehicles, electric vehicles, and connected car systems. Similar analysis has appeared in the adoption of renewable energy technologies, smart grid solutions, and sustainable practices within the energy sector. The Hype Cycle has been applied to emerging trends in environmental conservation and sustainability, such as circular economy practices, green technologies, and eco-friendly product innovations.

Retailers use the Hype Cycle to understand the adoption of technologies like augmented reality (AR) for shopping experiences, Internet of Things (IoT) devices for inventory management, and contactless payment methods. Media and entertainment in trends around virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) applications, streaming platforms, and content delivery technologies.

Applicability is also found in aggrotech, travel, tourism, real estate and even the adoption of technologies by government and the public sector.

The hype cycle is an adaptable framework that has proven valuable in understanding the adoption and maturation patterns of innovations across a wide range of industries but the applicability may need to be tailored to suit the specific characteristics of each industry.

Extra Reading

• Discontinuities, Chasms, and Hype in the Diffusion Process (lardbucket.org)
• The Bullish Case for Bitcoin | Satoshi Nakamoto Institute
• Scholarly communities face crucial social challenges in maintaining digital networks that can sustain participation. | Impact of Social Sciences (lse.ac.uk)
• Adoption et Evolution Technologique, et Gestion du cycle de vie – Serendipity (taesch.com)
• AI is the most hyped technology of 2023 | Computer Weekly